VR predictions for 2018 – we reserve the right to be wrong
2017 was supposed to be the breakthrough year for VR and AR, according to our predictions – and in a way, it was, for VR at least.
A lot of headsets were sold: Vive, Rift, PSVR, Samsung Gear VR. The Oculus Go was at least announced as was the Microsoft Mixed Reality headset. Others like the 200-degree FoV Pimax (3840×2160) and 210-degree Star VR (5120×1440), were also announced, although they were not actually demonstrated and could yet be vaporware.
In the AR world, things were a bit different. So far all we have seen is the ability to overlay a camera view on a phone screen with a virtual supplementary image and a few high-priced headsets that are intended for developers, with no indication of when the price will down to a level that will actually attract consumers.
More games and apps became available, and other used were pioneered like education, consumer visualization and – our pet project of the future – office applications.
Progress was also made in letting the “astronauts” walk untethered, with wireless relay closing the gap with wired connection and inside out tracking (relying on gyroscopes and accelerometers), closing the gap with external tracking that relies upon lighthouses and cameras. Some of the diehards moaned about poor latency and dropped frames. But the problem of the pigtail and the prospect of strangulation in one’s own living room, made it inevitable that cordless would elbow its way into the market.
In due course the latency and dropped frames problem will be solved. Some hardcore gamers will hang on to their ponytail headsets until that happens. Others will opt for the cheaper cordless models now. I had an argument about this a few months back, with a hardcore gamer insisting – with that characteristically adolescent sense of entitlement – that low latency and smooth motion were “basic requirements” for Virtual Reality. I pointed out to him that this was like a rich man saying: “one simply must travel by Rolls Royce or not travel at all.” Needless to say, the rich boy with his toys did not like that one bit!
I have also pointed out that the aesthetics of VR headsets leaves a lot to be desired. At the moment they are so kludgy, Apple will not touch them with a ten-foot pole. Until they can achieve the elegance of the Royole Moon personal theatre, I can’t see Apple changing its attitude towards them.
But where do we go from here?
According to a survey by the International Data Corporation, spending on AR and VR will almost double next year – from $9.1 billion in 2017 to $17.8 billion in 2018. And in the medium term, IDC projects that this growth rate will hold until at least 2021. But what is particularly interesting, is that IDC sees the biggest share of the market being held not by the games sector, nor by hardware or retail showcasing, but rather by what they call “others” – a somewhat vague and amorphous concept, covering pretty much everything that we don’t know about the VR and AR markets.
One thing they are clear about is that the biggest growth area will be the public sector – infrastructure maintenance and government training.
On the subject of VR-based training, IDC estimates that market revenue in the sector will reach $2.2 billion by 2023. However, this is predicated on a fast rollout of 5G telecoms standards. These standards have not yet even been finalized, but IDC appears to believe – probably wrongly – that 5G will begin commercial deployment in 2018! The faster speeds that 5G promises will no doubt play a part in bringing VR to a wider audience – as it will then be possible to transmit and narrowcast VR to targeted users. But even the standards won’t be finalized until 2018 – and rollout won’t begin until 2022. So, the IDC prediction on VR training, might itself be out by two years.
While I am reluctant to make more predictions after some of our prophecies for 2017 fell short, I will still my neck out by saying that with the Vive releasing the Vive Focus, with the Oculus Go and with others poised to enter the market, we feel that 2018 will be the year of the standalone VR headset.
And as for Augmented Reality, to quote Dostoyevsky: that is the subject of another story…